Why British Airways bailed out of flying to Beijing

British Airways’ decision last week to scale back flights to Beijing was surprising and not surprising in equal measure.

On one hand, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is a vital market for the UK flag carrier. On the other, the withdrawal was down to simple maths: economically, the numbers simply did not stack up.

Like many other major airlines, BA has been forced, primarily by western sanctions, to avoid Russian airspace since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. For BA, flights between London and Beijing take an additional three hours as a result — from 10 before to nearly 13. But that’s not the case for Chinese airlines; these carriers are not subject to the same flying restrictions and can continue to cut across Russian airspace to complete the journey in the fastest way possible.

BA’s longer journey is not just bad for customers. The more miles covered means additional fuel is required.

Analysis by the consultancy RDC Aviation reveals that fuel costs for BA on the China route have increased by 20 per cent as a result, although this has been partially offset by a reduction in air navigation costs. Russia is the most expensive country to fly across: prior to the pandemic, it was raking in $1.7 billion a year from carriers using its airspace.

All in all, RDC found that BA’s average single economy fares, to and from China, would need to increase by £85 — about a quarter — to balance the books.

Observers say the timing of BA’s decision is no coincidence. In May, it announced a partnership — or “codeshare” in airline jargon — with China Southern Airlines, so travellers can still book through BA to fly daily to Beijing from Heathrow.

It is worth noting that BA’s suspension is envisaged to be temporary. It begins in October and will conclude in November 2025.

BA’s decision — added to a move to cut flights to Hong Kong last month — is also likely to have been made because demand for air travel is far stronger elsewhere. “There’s more [profitable] business to be had flying transatlantic or to Bangkok, and less demand for China,” said one industry figure.

Perhaps, too, the move was a function of BA finally giving up on flying over Russia for the foreseeable future. Luis Gallego, boss of British Airways’ parent, IAG, has complained cryptically about the situation for some time. While he has not directly called for a return to using Russian airspace, he has demanded a “level playing field” with Chinese, Indian and other airlines still overflying the country.

His predecessor Willie Walsh has been more explicit. Walsh, now the boss of trade body Iata, said in 2023: “I would fly through Russian airspace if I could. So the idea that people won’t fly through Russian airspace doesn’t make sense. What we want to see is Russian airspace open to everybody.”